AFCON 2023: The Surprise Tournament
AFCON 2023 was a tournament full of surprises, from Namibia beating Tunisia to Ivory Coast winning the tournament by a miracle. But AFCON left a bitter taste for Egyptian fans, as their team did not win a single game and got knocked out in the round of 16 by Congo DR. As an Egyptian myself, I wanted to know what really went on with the national team that, on paper, had enough talent to reach the latter stages of the tournament. Lucky for me, StatsBomb released AFCON event data to the public, and I played around with the data to see what insights I could get.
Egypt’s Early AFCON Exit Data Analysis
Egypt’s Finishing and Open Play Chances
The Pharaohs had a total of 71 shots during their 4-game run in the AFCON. The Pharaohs produced 17.8 shots per 90 minutes, meaning that the Egyptian national team averaged 18 shots every match, which was the highest in the tournament. The shot map below shows all the shots the Pharaohs took from open play during the tournament.
From Open-Play, Egypt scored 5 goals (2 other goals were from penalties) and accumulated a total of 4.7 expected goals (xG). 30 out of 69 shots were from outside the box, which is around 40%, and none of them went in. Regarding expected goals, Egypt ranked 10th behind countries like South Africa, Morocco, Senegal, and Angola, producing 7.6 xG overall. Egypt may have had a lot of shots during the tournament, but most of those shots were wasteful as they were not from spots that had a high chance of going in.
Egypt’s Chance Creation and Expected Threat
Expected Threat represents the change in the probability of a team scoring as they move the ball to different parts of the pitch. Expected Threat usually represents chance creation more accurately than expected goals as shots are far and few compared to passes which are used to calculate expected threat.
Egypt is ranked 7th for overall expected threat created behind Cote D’Ivorie, Congo DR, and Nigeria. Egypt’s most creative player was right back Mohamed Hany with 22%, followed by defensive midfielder Mohamed Hamdy.
Build-up and Why Did Egypt Struggle?
I looked at build-up styles for each team in the tournament. Teams like Mauritania, Nigeria, and Angola depended on long balls or quick short passes to push the ball forward. While Cameroon, Senegal, and Tunisia relied on slow passes to build up their attack. Egypt seemed to struggle when it came to build-up:
- Egypt took fewer passes per shot than most teams in the tournament
2. The team faced a lot of problems when it comes to moving the ball forward up the pitch
Egypt’s Defensive Structure and Pressing Style
Egypt had a high line of defense with an average ball win height of 47.9%. Most of Egypt’s successful defensive actions were in both the left and right flanks, while the Pharaohs seemed to struggle to defend in front of the penalty area, especially on the left side.
Another point to look at is the Pressing styles. The right quadrant represents high-pressing teams like Nigeria and Senegal. Egypt lands on the left side, which means that Egypt gave their opposition a lot of space on average compared to other teams in the tournament.
