A New Era Begins: Southgate’s Transformation of the Three Lions
Since taking over as England manager in 2016, Gareth Southgate has transformed the team, leading them to notable achievements and steady progress. England was ranked 12th in the FIFA World Rankings when he started, and under his leadership, they have climbed as high as 3rd in 2021. With a win rate of around 61%, Southgate’s strategic approach has seen England averaging over two goals per match while conceding less than one. His ability to prepare the team for various conditions has been pivotal to their success. In Euro 2021, England showcased a balanced approach with 51% ball possession and a robust defense, conceding just 0.4 goals per match. This performance laid the foundation for future successes, highlighting Southgate’s ability to balance attack and defense.
Â
In the World Cup 2022, Southgate’s tactical adjustments led to increased ball possession (63%) and improved passing accuracy (88%), while maintaining a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per match. The pinnacle of his tenure was leading England to the final of Euro 2020, their first major tournament final since 1966. Despite losing to Italy in a dramatic penalty shootout, this achievement underscored his ability to guide the team to compete at the highest levels. Currently ranked 4th in the FIFA World Rankings, England reflects the sustained success under Southgate’s management. His pragmatic and defensive tactical approach, often employing two holding midfielders, has made England a resilient and competitive team on the international stage.
With the strategic foundations laid, we now turn to analyzing pairs of key players in each position using the following radar charts. These charts consider a range of parameters to identify the best offensive and defensive setups for England’s squad. By evaluating attributes such as goals, assists, pass completion, tackles won, interceptions, and more, we can determine the optimal formation for each setup. Analyzing their strengths and weaknesses reveals the most effective formations for England’s pursuit of Euro 2024 glory. The data for these diagrams comes from the OptaStatsperform database, reflecting players’ club performance during the 2023/2024 season, from August 11, 2023, to May 16, 2024.
England’s Offensive Mode Formation (4-3-3)
In the offensive setup, Jordan Pickford remains the reliable goalkeeper. The defense is bolstered by the attacking prowess of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Kieran Trippier as full-backs, with Ezri Konsa and Harry Maguire as the center-back duo. The midfield trio consists of the dynamic Jude Bellingham in an attacking role, supported by Conor Gallagher and Declan Rice’s stability. The forward line features the versatile and creative trio of Cole Palmer, Harry Kane, and Phil Foden, providing fluidity and goal-scoring threats.
Â
This formation’s strengths lie in the full-backs’ support in attacks, a dynamic midfield driven by Bellingham, and a versatile forward line capable of creating numerous chances. As shown in the lineup, the focus on attacking might expose vulnerabilities in defense, particularly against strong counter-attacking teams.
England’s Defensive Mode Formation (4-2-3-1)
The defensive formation also relies on Pickford as the goalkeeper. The backline features the defensively adept Kyle Walker and Ben Chilwell as full-backs, with Konsa and Maguire forming a solid central defense. The midfield is reinforced by the experienced Jordan Henderson and the defensively strong Declan Rice. Conor Gallagher plays a central role, while Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon provide width and pace on the flanks. Harry Kane leads the attack.
Â
This setup excels in defensive stability with strong central defenders and defensive midfielders. The full-backs’ defensive capabilities and the counter-attack potential of Saka and Gordon add to its robustness. As demonstrated in the following lineup, this formation may struggle with creativity in the midfield and could isolate Kane if the team sits too deep.
The Bench: Versatile and Ready
To complement the starting lineup, the bench features versatile and reliable players ready to step in as needed. The goalkeeping options include Sam Johnstone and Aaron Ramsdale, offering solid backup. In defense, the inclusion of Kyle Walker, Ben Chilwell, Lewis Dunk, John Stones, and Joe Gomez ensures depth and stability across all positions. Midfield cover is provided by Kobbie Mainoo and Jordan Henderson, adding experience and youthful energy. The forward options of Bukayo Saka, Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins, and Anthony Gordon add flexibility and attacking prowess. Two additional players from the “Ones to Watch” list will complete the 26-man squad, highlighting the depth and potential of the team as we look forward to the upcoming analysis.
Rising Stars: Ones to Watch
As England prepares for Euro 2024, emerging talents like Alfie Doughty, Eberechi Eze, and Dominic Solanke could provide the squad with the dynamism and depth needed to excel. Alfie Doughty offers strong defensive contributions, excelling in tackles won and successful dribbles, while also adding an offensive edge with his shot creation ability from the left-back position. As detailed in the chart below, Eberechi Eze stands out as an attacking midfielder with high metrics in goal-scoring and progressive carries, enhancing the team’s forward drive and shot creation, though his pass accuracy needs improvement. Dominic Solanke is a valuable striker, highly effective in possession play in the attacking final third and aerial duels, with significant potential in expected goals and assists. As we can see from their performance in the following charts, incorporating these players could significantly enhance England’s overall performance in the tournament.
Hot Zones: Heatmap Insights of England’s Top Performers
Heatmap analysis of England’s key players offers a deeper look into their on-field movements and impact. As outlined in the subsequent heatmaps, Jude Bellingham’s goal heatmap illustrates his significant presence inside the penalty area, making him a potent attacking midfielder. His ability to find space and score from within the box highlights his attacking instincts and finishing skills. Phil Foden’s heatmap reflects his versatility and effectiveness in an advanced midfield role, showcasing his ability to score from outside the box in key matches.
Â
As shown in the heatmap, Ollie Watkins underscores his role as a key playmaker, showcasing his exceptional assist record. As a central striker, Watkins not only finishes chances but also creates them, making him invaluable in offensive build-ups. Bukayo Saka’s heatmap shows his consistency as a right winger, with all his goals coming from the right side of the opponent’s penalty area. Saka’s specialization in this position allows him to exploit his strengths effectively.
Â
As highlighted in the heatmap below, Cole Palmer’s heatmap reveals his dual threat as both an attacking midfielder and a right winger. His ability to score from both inside and outside the penalty area has made him one of the top 7 scorers. Lastly, Harry Kane’s heatmap confirms his reputation as a prolific striker, primarily operating in the center of the penalty area. Kane’s finishing ability is well-documented, making him a reliable goal-scoring option. Overall, these players demonstrate excellent capability to score from various positions, providing England with multiple options for breaking down defenses and creating scoring opportunities. Additionally, Southgate is ready to make key substitutions during critical moments, adapting to exploit the opponent’s weaknesses. This keeps England flexible and competitive throughout the tournament.
The Decisive Moment: Penalty Pressure
England’s journey to the final of Euro 2020 was a historic achievement, marking their first appearance in a major tournament final since 1966. The final against Italy was a rollercoaster of emotions, culminating in a nail-biting penalty shootout. The bitter end, as Italy clinched victory from the spot, left a nation heartbroken and longing for redemption. This poignant loss highlighted the critical importance of penalties in football’s grandest stages. To fortify their chances in future tournaments, England must excel not only in open play but also under the immense pressure of penalty scenarios. As shown in the following shots map, we delve into the precise skills of England’s 8 penalty takers and the crucial role of goalkeepers in these high-stakes moments. For penalties, we consider both national and club performances. For the goalkeepers’ penalty shots map, the last penalty from May 2023 is also included for both goalkeepers.
The Precision Game: Analysis of England’s Penalty Takers
England’s current penalty takers show impressive accuracy and consistency. Harry Kane and Cole Palmer lead with perfect records, converting all their penalties this season. Bukayo Saka also maintains an excellent record, while Ivan Toney, despite one miss, remains a strong option. Additionally, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Declan Rice, and Marcus Rashford (if selected) have proven their capability in taking penalties.
Goalkeepers Against Penalties: A Study in Contrast
England’s goalkeepers have shown varied performances against penalties. As detailed in the shots map, Jordan Pickford has faced ten penalties this season and saved two, both targeted at the center, demonstrating his ability to occasionally thwart opponents from the spot. Pickford also has a history of saving penalties in major tournaments, including a crucial save in the previous Euros, making him a reliable choice for high-pressure scenarios. In contrast, Sam Johnstone has conceded all three penalties he faced this season, all targeted to the left, as well as the last penalty he faced in the previous season. This stark contrast underscores Pickford’s relative strength in penalty situations, suggesting he is the more dependable option for scenarios involving penalty kicks.
Is It Time for Football to Come Home?
As Euro 2024 approaches, the question on every England fan’s mind is whether this is finally the time for football to come home. With Gareth Southgate leading the team, a blend of experienced veterans and exciting young talents, and a tactical versatility that can adapt to any opponent, the Three Lions are set to make a significant impact. The meticulous preparation, combined with the passion and resilience that have come to define this team, offers an exciting prospect.
Â
There is now excellent chemistry between the players, with no disciplinary problems disrupting the harmony. Moreover, the majority of key players hold leadership roles at their clubs, bringing valuable experience and stability to the squad. Southgate’s readiness to make key substitutions during critical moments, adapting to exploit the opponent’s weaknesses, ensures that England remains flexible and competitive throughout the tournament.
Â
England’s journey under Southgate has been one of growth and near-misses, but the data and performances suggest that this could indeed be their moment. Will Euro 2024 be the tournament where England’s dream finally becomes a reality? Only time will tell, but the signs are certainly promising.
Community ARTICLE Author
Written by Immanuel Faraji
A skilled data analyst with a strong background in computer engineering and business economics. As a research assistant at the Autonomous University of Barcelona.
